My First Post on Super Bowl Forty-Nine

 

One of the myriad of “prop” bets on the Super Bowl asks, “Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown in the game?”. “Yes” gets you 8-to-5 odds (you win $160 on a $100 bet) and “No” has 1-to-2 odds (you win $50 on a $100 bet). So how often do these touchdowns occur in the postseason?

Since 2000, there have been 73 such touchdowns in 164 postseason games, or one every 2.24 games. So based on that alone, the odds really should be 11-to-5 for “Yes” and 4-to-9 odds for “No”.

What about returns TD’s in just the Super Bowl? Since 1970, there have been 31 in 44 games, or one every 1.42 games, . Since 2000, there have been a whopping 16 such returns in 14 games (1.14 PER GAME), a MUCH higher rate than the postseason as a whole in that span. Look at it this way:

Super Bowls since 2000:                   1.14 returns TDs per game                                                       All other postseason games:            0.38 returns TD’s per game                                            

Below is a list of the 16 returns TDs in the Super Bowl since 2000:

TEMP SB Returns TDs since 2000    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did anybody recall that Gruden’s Tampa Bay Bucs had THREE pick-six’s twelve years ago against Oakland? Of course two of those came in the final two minutes when the game was already in the bag. Oakland’s Rich Gannon had five picks that day.

One more thing about returns TDs in the postseason: The Patriots have not had such a TD in their last 14 postseason games, the 3rd longest active streak in the NFL:

Vikings – 22 games (last 1/9/1988 vs 49ers, pick-6)                                                                            Dolphins – 22 games (last 1/30/1983 vs Redskins, KO return)                                                             Patriots – 14 games (last 1/21/2007 vs Colts, Fumble return)

More later!

Got comments or suggestions? Give me a shout on Twitter: @Nuggetpalooza.

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